Vol: 5 Issue: Combined Issue 3 & 4
Published In: July 2015
Article No: 10 Page: 157-186 doi: https://doi.org/10.13052/jge1904-4720.53410
Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in Advanced
Solar Cells Technologies and PV Market
Laurentiu Fara*,1,2 Alexandru Diaconu1 and Florin Dragan1
E-mail: lfara@renerg.pub.ro; adiaconu86@gmail.com;
diaconu_alex@hotmail.com; florin.dragan@sdettib.pub.ro
*Corresponding Author
Received 14 May 2016; Accepted 3 August 2016;
Publication 22 September 2016
Selected results in modelling and numerical simulation of advanced solar cells obtained by the Solar Energy Group from the Faculty of Applied Sciences of PUB (SEG-FSA) are highlighted. The opportunities for PV development together with the world PV market performances, relevant European PV market features and the forecasts until 2018 are discussed.
The speed and scale of the current development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry in the last 30 years is extremely surprising and remarkable [1]. It was accompanied by the rapid dropping of the PV prices. The PV revolution has reflected the microelectronic revolution in several ways. One of its attractive features is represented by the international contributions in PV industry and technology. There is a fantastic leap between the first PV laboratories in fundamental physics and chemistry from Europe since 60 years ago and the modern industrial PV laboratories and manufacturing all over the world (Europe, USA, Japan, China etc.). To understand how it was possible to reach this impressive level of development, it would be necessary to consider the talent of the researchers who succeeded to introduce lower cost abundant PV materials, new methods of photon management, and new paradigms in PV conversion.
Based on these ideas, the present paper was organized in the following sections:
According to the World Energy Vision 2100 recommended by German Advisory Council on Global Change [2], Solar Photovoltaic electricity can become a major source of energy with approx. 20% in 2050 and 70% in 2100 (see Figure 1).
The main performances of different types of solar cells including: conversion efficiency, area, fill factor (FF) and main electric parameters (short circuit current Jsc and open circuit voltage Voc) are presented in the Table 1. We could remark that compound multi-junction and concentrator solar cells together with CdTe solar cells and CIGS (CulnGaSe2) solar cells are expected to have high efficiency. At the same time the development of heterojunction Si solar cells with transparent conductive oxide layers has very good perspectives.
The cost drop of PV modules is essential for the implementation of large scale photovoltaic systems. The comparison of PV module price for different types of solar cells is presented in the Figures 2, 3 and 4.
Figure 1 Transforming the global energy mix: Reserve of primary energy by 2050/2100 [2].
Figure 2 Average monthly PV module prices in Europe, 2009 to 2014 [4].
Figure 3 Cumulative global PV development and PV module prices, 2000 to 2014 [4].
Figure 4 Evolution of price for silicon PV cells [5].
Table 1 Conversion efficiency of monocrystalline Si, polycrystalline Si, CIGS, CdTe, organic dye and polymer solar cells [3]
Classification | Efficiency (%) | Area (cm2) | Voc (V) | Jsc (mA/cm2) | FF (%) | Test Centre (date) |
Si (single crystal) | 25.0±0.5 | 4.00(da) | 0.706 | 42.7 | 82.8 | Sandia(3/99) |
Si (multicrystal) | 20.4±0.5 | 1.002(ap) | 0.664 | 38.0 | 80.9 | NREL(5/04) |
a-Si | 9.6±0.3 | 1.070(ap) | 0.859 | 17.6 | 63.0 | NREL(4/03) |
a-Si/nc-Si/nc- Si(tandem) | 12.5±0.7 | 0.27(da) | 2.011 | 9.11 | 68.4 | NREL(3/09) |
a-Si/mc-Si (tandem) | 11.9±0.8 | 1.227 | 1.346 | 12.92 | 68.5 | NREL(8/10) |
a-Si/mc-Si (tandem) | 11.7±0.4 | 14.23(ap) | 5.462 | 2.99 | 71.3 | AIST(9/04) |
CIGS | 20.3±0.6 | 0.5015(ap) | 0.740 | 35.4 | 77.5 | FhG-ISE(6/10) |
CdTe | 16.7±0.5 | 1.032(ap) | 0.845 | 26.1 | 75.5 | NREL(9/01) |
GaAs | 27.6±0.8 | 0.9989(ap) | 1.107 | 29.6 | 84.1 | NREL(11/10) |
InP | 22.1±0.7 | 4.02(t) | 0.878 | 29.5 | 85.4 | NREL(4/90) |
GaInP/GaInAs/Ge 3-J (con-centration) | 41.6±2.5 364-suns | 0.3174(da) | 3.192 | 1.696 A | 88.74 | NREL(8/09) |
InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs 3-J (1-sun) | 35.8±1.5 | 0.880(ap) | 3.012 | 13.9 | 86.3 | AIST(9/09) |
Dye-sensitized | 11.2±0.3 | 0.219(ap) | 0.736 | 21 | 72.2 | AIST(3/06) |
Organic polymer | 8.3±0.3 | 1.031(ap) | 0.816 | 14.46 | 70.2 | NREL(11/10) |
(da) = designed illumination area; (ap) = aperture area; (t) = total area.
The Solar Energy Group from the Faculty of Applied Sciences of University Politehnica of Bucharest (SEG-FSA) developed contributions in electrical and optical modelling and simulation of advanced solar cells, like: Multiple Quantum Well Solar Cells (MQW), Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC), Polymer Solar Cells and Thin Film Solar Cells. In addition, forecasting of photovoltaic systems by estimation of solar radiation has also been studied.
This article brought further advancements to the quantum well solar cell concept proposed by Keith Barnham [7].
The quantum mechanical effects resulted from the inclusion of nanostructures, represented by quantum wells and quantum dots, in the i-layer of an intermediate band solar cell are analysed.
A numerical procedure consisting of a simplified physical model and a numerical method with the aim of optimizing the performance parameters of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) are proposed [18, 19].
The numerical simulation of the physical parameters for dye-sensitized solar cells with black dyes was considered based on a new optimizing procedure.
This article deals with the synthesis and characterization of new phtalocyanine based chromophores and new electrolyte for the fabrication of hybrid dye-sensitized solar cells (hybrid DSSCs). This type of photovoltaic cells is not presented so far in the literature.
A numerical method to determine the cell parameters from the analysis of the I–V characteristics of a polymer solar cell is proposed. This method uses the equations given by the diode model, experimental data from the literature, and an adequate fitting procedure with seven fit parameters [30, 31].
An analysis of optical processes (reflectance and absorption) was conducted for advanced thin film solar cells based on cadmium and metal oxides, in order to evaluate and improve the optical performance [34].
The approach on solar radiation forecast used in this paper is based on two methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) [38, 39].
This paper analyses the daily irradiation variability, as well as other meteorological parameters which could affect the PV power output.
The study is dedicated to the performance analysis of a BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaic) system developed in Romania and mounted on the building of the Polytechnic University of Bucharest (PUB) [46]; such systems highly depend on the fluctuation of incoming solar radiation reaching the PV system’s surface.
The book “Advanced Solar Cell Materials, Technology, Modelling, and Simulation”, Laurentiu Faraand Masafumi Yamaguchi (editors), published by IGI Global(USA), 2013 [1], could be considered as a precursory contribution to the MultiscaleSolar COST project (2015–2019) and a trial to introduce a global vision in modelling and simulation of advanced solar cells.
Four generations of solar cells have been developed until now. The third and fourth generations of solar cells are potentially able to overcome the Shockley-Queisser conversion efficiency of 31% at l-sun and 41% under concentration for single bandgap solar cells [47].
Limiting efficiencies are expected to be 28.9%, 23.5%, 23.5%, 17.5%, and 16% for crystalline Si, thin-film Si, CIGS as well as CdTe, dye-sensitized and organic solar cells, respectively. On the other hands, because 41.6% efficiency has been realized with concentrator InGaP/InGaAs/Ge 3-junction solar cells, concentrator 4-junction or 5-junction solar cells have great potential for realizing super high-efficiency of over 50%. At the same time, in order to to overcome conversion efficiency limitations, developing new types of solar cells based on new materials and new concepts is very important. Third-generation solar cells include both multi-layered/multi-junction solar cells and intermediate bands, hot-carrier solar cells. Realistic conversion efficiencies obtained for solar cells by using the above concepts could be less than 55% by considering possible efficiency based on the realistic multi-junction (tandem) concept. However, further R&D for new materials and new concepts is necessary to challenge to overcome the Shockley-Queisser limit.
The book is dedicated especially to the third generation of solar cells [48] and it is structured on five sections, namely:
This special book looks for to present the main results obtained by international research regarding materials, technology, modelling, and simulation of different types of advanced solar cells. There are simulated the essential mechanisms using fundamental models of advanced solar cells, in order to understand better these mechanisms and to evaluate new methodologies. New materials, concepts and devices are considered. The book stressed on innovative approaches in photovoltaics using quantum confinement, as well as light and thermal management.
In order to overcome clean energy supply problems due to possible nuclear power plant crises, further deployment of PV power generating systems as well as further development in science and technology of PV are very important. Very large scale installation of PV power generating systems and further improvements in conversion efficiencies and reliability and lowering the cost of solar cells and modules are necessary.
In the world, 40 GW of PV systems were installed in 2014, compared with 38.4 GW in 2013 and 30 GW in 2012, setting a new record for the solar PV sector; PV remains, after hydro and wind power, the third most important renewable energy source in terms of globally installed capacity [49, 50]. This level of installations has been achieved due to:
All these evaluations mark a progress in all regions of the world.
PV markets in Europe and around the world continued to make rapid progress toward competitiveness in the electricity sector in 2014. Strong PV technology price decreases and electricity prices on the rise have helped drive momentum toward “dynamic grid parity” – when the savings in electricity cost and/or the revenues generated by selling PV electricity on the market are equal to or higher than the long-term cost of installing and financing a PV system.
However Europe is still the predominant player, with more than 88 GW installed at the end of 2014. The 2014 solar PV markets showed a perfect balance between utility scale installations and distributed ones.
For the fourth year in a row, PV in 2014 was amongst the two most installed sources of electricity in the European Union. While wind energy exceeded PV in 2013 by some hundreds of MW, these two sources of electricity are the clear leaders of new generation sources of installations. PV now covers 3% of the electricity demand and 6% of the peak electricity demand in Europe. As the share of PV in the electricity mix increases, grid and market integration challenges are becoming more and more important for the future development of PV.
The main high opportunities for PV development are put in evidence by the international research [51] and could be considered as follows:
Sandia National Laboratories is facilitating a collaborative group of PV professionals (PV Performance Modelling Collaborative or PVPMC) [51]. This group is interested in improving the accuracy and technical rigor of PV performance models and analyses. Solar radiation databases and important weather data that could influence the PV forecasted output could be found in some of the most important platforms, such as:
Solar spectral irradiance variation has a demonstrated effect on photovoltaic device performance. The significance of the effect with respect to energy yield has been shown to be technology-specific, through device spectral response, and site-specific, since spectral variation depends on atmospheric path length and cloud cover.
The performance of a PV module is rated at Standard Reporting Conditions (SRC). However, PV modules perform under a variety of conditions where the spectral distribution varies from the ASTM spectrum. Spectral distribution is primarily influenced by the path length through the atmosphere and the amounts of atmospheric water vapour and aerosols. These factors cause diurnal, seasonal, and geographic variations in spectral distribution that can increase or decrease Isc. Variations in spectral distribution are more likely to impact the performance of PV modules that respond to a narrower wavelength range of solar radiation, such as amorphous silicon, than those that respond to a wider wavelength range of solar radiation, such as crystalline silicon [53].
Various approaches for correcting variations in spectral distribution have been completed. Some of the most important are (1) Empirical relationships based on air mass or path length through the atmosphere, and (2) Use of spectral irradiance models with PV module spectral response data [54].
Because the market conditions put pressure on the entire photovoltaic installation, efforts are being made for developing new processes for optimization and installation to reduce the costs. This also leads to new materials and methods that have to be implemented into production and installation.
There are a number of features that new adhesive and sealants are currently researched to be developed, leading to lower production costs and higher efficiency. For example, Sika Corporation is adding value to their products by implementing the following benefits to their products [55].
Table 2 Features and benefits in using new bonding and sealing technology
Adhesive Features | Benefits for the Photovoltaic System | |
Substrate-friendly |
|
|
joining method |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scope for design |
|
|
|
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|
Dynamic load capacity |
|
|
Product performance |
|
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Table 3 Key system benefits
Reduced costs in production and installation | Increased durability and performance |
|
|
The company is also introducing a different way to mount the photovoltaic modules by moving from frames and mechanical mounting, to a bonded frameless mounting solution that has the following advantages [55].
One of the most important components of the PV system design is represented by the PV ribbon products. Efforts are made for producing more efficient solar tabbing and bus wire to help obtain the highest efficiency possible. The latest technology developed by Ulbrich Solar Technologies, consists in a innovative grooved solar cell tabbing ribbon, that increases the efficiency of a solar module by reflecting light back onto the surface of the cell. This grooved ribbon replaces the traditional wire that connects solar cells together. Eighty percent of the photocurrent from light that strikes the ribbon is recovered-far better than the 5% recovered by standard interconnects wire. The recaptured light creates up to a 2% module efficiency gain. In addition to tinned copper wire, Ulbrich also manufactures silver plated copper, aluminium alloys, hybrid alloys and metal substrate materials [56].
The subject of grid integration coupled with renewable power generation is playing an increasingly important role. The optimum integration of the decentralized and variable power generation capacity of PV systems into the existing distribution grid (designed for unidirectional flows of power) is as crucial as it is pressing for that very reason.
There are already progressive approaches for the optimum grid integration of renewable power generation capacity that go beyond both directives: Comprehensive energy management at the household level, the incorporation of solar radiation forecasts, and the use of local storage systems are paving the way to the intelligent grid, the “smart grid”. SMA is also committed to this field? with the development of the innovative Sunny Home Manager, the collaboration with PV forecast services, or the advancement of the proven Sunny Backup system for a grid-connected storage solution [57].
The relevant market combines the product market and the geographic market. Photovoltaics had showed an aggressive grow, however, political support differs from one country to another. Reasons could be some of the following:
The evolution of European PV installed capacity in the period 2000–2014 is presented in Figure 5 [49]. Distribution per country of annual installed capacity, cumulative installed, as well as political support for PV, is emphasized in Table 4 [50].
Figure 5 Evolution of European solar PV cumulative installed capacity 2000–2014 [49].
Table 4 European solar PV market and prospects [50]
Country | Cumulative Installed Capacity 2014 (MW DC) | Political Support Prospects |
Austria | 767 | political support works well |
Belgium | 3.104 | political support works partially OK |
Bulgaria | 1.022 | drastic measures regarding political support |
Croatia | 33 | political support works partially OK |
Cyprus | 65 | political support works partially OK |
Czech Republic | 2.134 | drastic measures regarding political support |
Denmark | 608 | political support works well |
Estonia | 0.2 | political support works partially OK |
Finland | 11.2 | political support works well |
France | 5.632 | political support works partially OK |
Germany | 38.235 | political support works partially OK |
Greece | 2.596 | political support works partially OK |
Hungary | 80 | political support works partially OK |
Ireland | 1.1 | political support works well |
Italy | 18.313 | political support works partially OK |
Latvia | 1.5 | political support works partially OK |
Lithuania | 68 | political support works partially OK |
Luxembourg | 110 | political support works well |
Malta | 23 | political support works partially OK |
Netherlands | 1.042 | political support works well |
Poland | 34 | drastic measures regarding political support |
Portugal | 414 | political support works partially OK |
Romania | 1.223 | political support works partially OK |
Slovakia | 524 | political support works partially OK |
Slovenia | 256 | political support works well |
Spain | 5.388 | drastic measures regarding political support |
Sweden | 79 | political support works well |
Switzerland | 1.046 | political support works well |
Turkey | 58 | political support works well |
United Kingdom | 5.230 | political support works well |
The European market would first grow between 7 GW (low scenario) and 11 GW (high scenario) in 2015, before increasing again at a slower pace with installations ranging between 6 GW in 2015 and 17 GW (expected) in 2019 (see Figure 6) [50].
Figure 6 European annual solar PV market scenarios until 2019 [50].
After many years of growth and innovation, the PV industry is again going through a challenging period, with shifting market dynamics and a different geographical focus. In Europe, changing political support has created a climate of uncertainty that will hamper the re-development of the PV market. But outside Europe, the potential for growth remains intact and the various projects appearing in dozens of countries could transform into real market take-off. Going forward, the key issues that will play a role in determining how market evolution takes place include:
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L. Fara is currently full Professor at University “Politehnica” of Bucharest, Faculty of Applied Sciences. He is the President of the Renewable Energy Commission of Romanian Academy. He is full member of Romanian Academy of Science (AOSR). He was involved in more than 15 EU projects, as member or coordinator. He contributed to organization of several international conferences dedicated to renewable energy, the newest one being World Renewable Energy Congress (WREC) 2015. In the last two years, he was involved in two EU projects, MultiscaleSolar from COST and SOLHET from M-Era.net. He is coordinating several Ph.D. students in researching and modeling of solar cells and PV systems. His main interests are advanced solar cells, forecasting and modeling of PV systems, statistical models of solar radiation and energy efficiency applications. He published articles in ISI international journals, mainly dedicated to quantum well, polymer, dye-sensitized and silicon-based solar cells. He is author of about 200 conference, journal and book chapter publications. He coordinated as editor, together with Professor Masafumi Yamaguchi from Japan, the publication of the book “Advanced Solar Cell Materials, Technology, Modeling, and Simulation” at Hershey: IGI Global in 2013; he also contributed at several chapters of this book. He received the Romanian Academy award in Physics for his activity in solar energy in 1987, as well as the Romanian Academy of Science award in Physics for the book “Advanced Solar Cell Materials, Technology, Modeling, and Simulation” in 2015.
A. Diaconu received his B.Sc. degree in Physics Engineering at Faculty of Applied Sciences from University “Politehnica” of Bucharest in 2009 and his Masters degree in Photonics and Advanced Materials at Faculty of Applied Sciences from University “Politehnica” of Bucharest in 2011. He was admitted as a Ph.D. candidate in 2011. He prepared his Ph.D. thesis, entitled “Contributions to operational optimization of PV systems for applications”, to be officially presented until the end of 2016. He was involved in three EU research and training projects (from IEEE, M-Era.net and COST). His main research interests include utilization of forecasting models of solar radiation for estimation of energy production of PV systems/parks, as well as PV systems modeling using advanced programs (S.A.M., Solarius-PV and PVsyst). He is author of a few international conference and journal publications.
F. Dragan received his B.Sc. degree in Physics Engineering at Faculty of Applied Sciences from University “Politehnica” of Bucharest in 2011 and his Masters degree in Photonics and Advanced Materials at Faculty of Applied Sciences from University “Politehnica” of Bucharest in 2013. He was admitted as a Ph.D. candidate in 2013. He is currently preparing his Ph.D. thesis, entitled “Research and contributions concerning optical modeling and numerical simulation of nanostructured solar cells”. He was involved in two EU research projects (from M-Era.net and COST) dedicated to study and improvement of new types of third generation solar cells. His main research interests include optical modeling of advanced solar cells for efficiency improvement, using advanced software (Silvaco ATLAS). He is author of a few international conference and journal publications.
Journal of Green Engineering, Vol. 5,331–360.
doi: 10.13052/jge1904-4720.53410
© 2016 River Publishers. All rights reserved.
2 Advanced Solar Cells Technologies
3.1 Quantum Well Solar Cells (MQW)
3.2 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC)
3.5 Forecasting Photovoltaic System Output
4 Modelling and Simulation for Advanced Solar Cells – Global Vision
5.1 World Market Performances for 2014
5.2 The Main PV World Market Features in 2014
6 High Opportunities for PV Development
6.1 Reliable Solar Radiation Database to Make Smart Forecasted PV Output
6.2 Spectral Corrections for PV Performance Modelling
6.3 Bonding and Sealing Technology – New Adhesive Solutions for PV Modules
6.4 Development of PV Ribbon Products
6.5 Progressive Integration of PV Systems in Electricity Market to Maintain the Grid Stability
7 Relevant European PV Market in 2014